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Fuwanovel's Battle of the Guilds!

OriginalRen

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Eclipsed Fuwa Master

Eclipsed

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Quick clarity question(s) regarding the choose 11 cards (9 agents, 1 location, 1 relic)

  • Are we just choosing whatever random character/location/relic we can think of and sending you the images(720 pixels in height minimum) so you can create the cards + stats?
  • Is each TEAM (not guild) making their own deck? 
     
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Flutterz Fuwa Master

Flutterz

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I wrote a small program that simulates a full "tournament" based on your rules because apparently I have nothing better to do. Every team's score at the end of a match is simply a random number between 0 and 60 and I had it run 10000 trials at a time. Here are the results:

 

(note that by a guild winning a tournament I mean that a team that was part of that guild won the tournament and by a guild being the best I mean that it won the points tally)

If you divide the tsunderes' score by 2:

Team Chibi1 won 678 times.
Team Chibi2 won 670 times.
Team Kuudere1 won 725 times.
Team Kuudere2 won 647 times.
Team Loli1 won 712 times.
Team Loli2 won 684 times.
Team Trap1 won 724 times.
Team Trap2 won 741 times.
Team Senpai1 won 705 times.
Team Senpai2 won 726 times.
Team Tsundere1 won 760 times.
Team Tsundere2 won 750 times.
Team Tsundere3 won 749 times.
Team Tsundere4 won 729 times.
 
Chibi guild won 1348 times.
Kuudere guild won 1372 times.
Loli guild won 1396 times.
Trap guild won 1465 times.
Senpai guild won 1431 times.
Tsundere guild won 2988 times.
 
Chibi guild was the best 1701 times.
Kuudere guild was the best 1806 times.
Loli guild was the best 1727 times.
Trap guild was the best 1766 times.
Senpai guild was the best 1822 times.
Tsundere guild was the best 1178 times.

 

If you take the tsunderes' 2 best scores:

Team Chibi1 won 684 times.
Team Chibi2 won 734 times.
Team Kuudere1 won 744 times.
Team Kuudere2 won 721 times.
Team Loli1 won 683 times.
Team Loli2 won 734 times.
Team Trap1 won 685 times.
Team Trap2 won 742 times.
Team Senpai1 won 679 times.
Team Senpai2 won 735 times.
Team Tsundere1 won 726 times.
Team Tsundere2 won 731 times.
Team Tsundere3 won 748 times.
Team Tsundere4 won 654 times.
 
Chibi guild won 1418 times.
Kuudere guild won 1465 times.
Loli guild won 1417 times.
Trap guild won 1427 times.
Senpai guild won 1414 times.
Tsundere guild won 2859 times.
 
Chibi guild was the best 1145 times.
Kuudere guild was the best 1172 times.
Loli guild was the best 1120 times.
Trap guild was the best 1110 times.
Senpai guild was the best 1127 times.
Tsundere guild was the best 4326 times.

 

The tsundere teams seem to individually win a tiny bit too many games so I'm going to go back and find out why that is, but the really obvious conclusions are that:

 - The tsundere guild wins about twice as many tournaments as any other team which is predictable, but since you're only crowning the team that wins and not the guild that doesn't matter too much

 - If you divide the tsunderes' score by 2 they win about 11% of the time while all the other teams win 18% of the time, so I was right about them being at a disadvantage in that case

 - If you pick the tsunderes' 2 best scores they win about 43% of the time while all the other teams win 11% of the time, so as arakura and I pointed out that gives them a HUGE advantage

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OriginalRen Fuwa Master

OriginalRen

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Quick clarity question(s) regarding the choose 11 cards (9 agents, 1 location, 1 relic)

  • Are we just choosing whatever random character/location/relic we can think of and sending you the images(720 pixels in height minimum) so you can create the cards + stats?
  • Is each TEAM (not guild) making their own deck? 

     

Yes! Every team gets their own set of Chibis, Lolis, etc.

One more thing, if by some amazing stroke of luck 3 or 4 of the tsundere teams make it to the second round, can they randomly end up playing a match where all 3 teams are tsunderes or will you prevent that?

Unfortunately, that can't be helped, hence the reason there is an "all time winner" in the competition. This is also the reason why every team gets their own set of cards to start with, even if there are multiple teams in each guild. Even if you're representing Lolis, you want your Lolis to win!

I wrote a small program that simulates a full "tournament" based on your rules because apparently I have nothing better to do. Every team's score at the end of a match is simply a random number between 0 and 60 and I had it run 10000 trials at a time. Here are the results:

 

(note that by a guild winning a tournament I mean that a team that was part of that guild won the tournament and by a guild being the best I mean that it won the points tally)

If you divide the tsunderes' score by 2:

Team Chibi1 won 678 times.

Team Chibi2 won 670 times.

Team Kuudere1 won 725 times.

Team Kuudere2 won 647 times.

Team Loli1 won 712 times.

Team Loli2 won 684 times.

Team Trap1 won 724 times.

Team Trap2 won 741 times.

Team Senpai1 won 705 times.

Team Senpai2 won 726 times.

Team Tsundere1 won 760 times.

Team Tsundere2 won 750 times.

Team Tsundere3 won 749 times.

Team Tsundere4 won 729 times.

 

Chibi guild won 1348 times.

Kuudere guild won 1372 times.

Loli guild won 1396 times.

Trap guild won 1465 times.

Senpai guild won 1431 times.

Tsundere guild won 2988 times.

 

Chibi guild was the best 1701 times.

Kuudere guild was the best 1806 times.

Loli guild was the best 1727 times.

Trap guild was the best 1766 times.

Senpai guild was the best 1822 times.

Tsundere guild was the best 1178 times.

 

If you take the tsunderes' 2 best scores:

Team Chibi1 won 684 times.

Team Chibi2 won 734 times.

Team Kuudere1 won 744 times.

Team Kuudere2 won 721 times.

Team Loli1 won 683 times.

Team Loli2 won 734 times.

Team Trap1 won 685 times.

Team Trap2 won 742 times.

Team Senpai1 won 679 times.

Team Senpai2 won 735 times.

Team Tsundere1 won 726 times.

Team Tsundere2 won 731 times.

Team Tsundere3 won 748 times.

Team Tsundere4 won 654 times.

 

Chibi guild won 1418 times.

Kuudere guild won 1465 times.

Loli guild won 1417 times.

Trap guild won 1427 times.

Senpai guild won 1414 times.

Tsundere guild won 2859 times.

 

Chibi guild was the best 1145 times.

Kuudere guild was the best 1172 times.

Loli guild was the best 1120 times.

Trap guild was the best 1110 times.

Senpai guild was the best 1127 times.

Tsundere guild was the best 4326 times.

 

The tsundere teams seem to individually win a tiny bit too many games so I'm going to go back and find out why that is, but the really obvious conclusions are that:

 - The tsundere guild wins about twice as many tournaments as any other team which is predictable, but since you're only crowning the team that wins and not the guild that doesn't matter too much

 - If you divide the tsunderes' score by 2 they win about 11% of the time while all the other teams win 18% of the time, so I was right about them being at a disadvantage in that case

 - If you pick the tsunderes' 2 best scores they win about 43% of the time while all the other teams win 11% of the time, so as arakura and I pointed out that gives them a HUGE advantage

Any suggestions then? What if I form a loser's bracket after the 1st round?

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Okami Fuwa Elite

Okami

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Any suggestions then? What if I form a loser's bracket after the 1st round?

 

How about if you instead of 2 best tsundare guilds take #1 and #3 or #1 and #4 (Best and worse)? Flutterz can run a simulation on those 2 options too and the one that puts them in least advantage/disadvantage can be the final option.

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Flutterz Fuwa Master

Flutterz

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Okay, I had a minor issue with the sorting where if there was a tie for first place it would give preference to one team over another, but that's been fixed now. It was pretty obvious once I ran a million trials at a time because the Chibis would be the best 16.2% of the time, Kuuderes 16.4% and so on with Senpais at 17%.

 

So now that that's been fixed, I tried messing around with what number to multiply the Tsunderes' score by, and it seems that multiplying it by 0.5457 is just about perfect:

Team Chibi1 won 71561 times.
Team Chibi2 won 71729 times.
Team Kuudere1 won 71516 times.
Team Kuudere2 won 71436 times.
Team Loli1 won 71473 times.
Team Loli2 won 71763 times.
Team Trap1 won 70821 times.
Team Trap2 won 71356 times.
Team Senpai1 won 71466 times.
Team Senpai2 won 71137 times.
Team Tsundere1 won 71621 times.
Team Tsundere2 won 71209 times.
Team Tsundere3 won 71593 times.
Team Tsundere4 won 71319 times.
 
Chibi guild won 143290 times.
Kuudere guild won 142952 times.
Loli guild won 143236 times.
Trap guild won 142177 times.
Senpai guild won 142603 times.
Tsundere guild won 285742 times.
 
Chibi guild was the best 167819 times.
Kuudere guild was the best 166749 times.
Loli guild was the best 166588 times.
Trap guild was the best 166067 times.
Senpai guild was the best 166472 times.
Tsundere guild was the best 166305 times.

And while I do realize that it's a bit pedantic to use 0.5457 instead of 0.5, especially considering this is probably not going to be played a million times, but if that makes it balanced, why not.

If you want a more elegant solution that doesn't involve multiplying by an almost completely arbitrary number, however, you'll need to come up with something different. Adding a loser's bracket doesn't change much since at the end of the day you still have 14 teams whose best scores are pretty much random (although a bit more likely to be closer to 60) and you're splitting them into 5 groups of 2 and a single group of 4. It's really just a question of how you calculate the tsunderes' score.

 

 

How about if you instead of 2 best tsundare guilds take #1 and #3 or #1 and #4 (Best and worse)? Flutterz can run a simulation on those 2 options too and the one that puts them in least advantage/disadvantage can be the final option.

Here's #1 and #3:

Chibi guild was the best 148636 times.
Kuudere guild was the best 149038 times.
Loli guild was the best 148316 times.
Trap guild was the best 148958 times.
Senpai guild was the best 148287 times.
Tsundere guild was the best 256765 times.

 

#1 and #4:

Chibi guild was the best 173930 times.
Kuudere guild was the best 174556 times.
Loli guild was the best 174304 times.
Trap guild was the best 173948 times.
Senpai guild was the best 174649 times.
Tsundere guild was the best 128613 times.

 

#2 and #3:

Chibi guild was the best 174954 times.
Kuudere guild was the best 175085 times.
Loli guild was the best 175373 times.
Trap guild was the best 174277 times.
Senpai guild was the best 175012 times.
Tsundere guild was the best 125299 times.

 

and #1 and #2 again just for comparison:

Chibi guild was the best 115047 times.
Kuudere guild was the best 115155 times.
Loli guild was the best 115354 times.
Trap guild was the best 115464 times.
Senpai guild was the best 115482 times.
Tsundere guild was the best 423498 times.

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Flutterz Fuwa Master

Flutterz

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There seems to be alot of concern regarding Tsundere's higher total team count in comparison to the other Guilds.

Would it simply be better to make Tsundere's have 2 teams of 4 people then?

That's pretty much the only other solution I can think of. Although statistically the 0.5457 one isn't any worse. :P

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Flutterz Fuwa Master

Flutterz

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Also I think I know why just dividing by 2 doesn't work. That basically means you're taking the average of the 4 scores and using double that as their final score, and because all of the scores tend to be closer to 60 than 0 (since we're taking the best score of each team) that means that if a team gets completely destroyed and gets a score close to 0 it brings the average down by quite a lot. Similarly if one of the teams does really well, it only moves the average up a bit rather than greatly boosting the score.

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Flutterz Fuwa Master

Flutterz

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Well I am not sure what should be done about Tsundare case, dividing their score by 2 seems to be the least advantage/disadvantage.

 

By the way, Originalren do you want any specific resolutions of pictures for cards?

Multiplying by 0.5457 works best (or dividing by 1.8325 which is the same thing).

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OriginalRen Fuwa Master

OriginalRen

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Well I am not sure what should be done about Tsundare case, dividing their score by 2 seems to be the least advantage/disadvantage.

 

By the way, Originalren do you want any specific resolutions of pictures for cards?

Having them be at least 720 pixels in height works best if that is possible.

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OriginalRen Fuwa Master

OriginalRen

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How many rounds will the game last? if there isnt a set number of round, how many cards are in the deck at the start of the game?

 

There will be a total of 3 rounds. I have figured out a new system that will balance all parts of the game, so keep an eye out for the change later tonight before I go to sleep. I will post more details then.

 

What's the deadline on submitting photos? 

I changed my member title to Senpai so everyone would recognize my prestigious guild name. 

 

As soon as you are able to submit them! I am still grinding cards, so the more cards I get to make, the easier it is when I am in a workaholic mood.

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Flutterz Fuwa Master

Flutterz

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The only thing I don't entire agree with is that the first round essentially has 0 effect on the game besides the points tally. Regardless of whether you win or lose your chances of getting to the final stay the same. But that's a question of design and has no real effect on the balance, so it's really up to you.

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OriginalRen Fuwa Master

OriginalRen

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Final Match and Rules Announcement

 

I would like to apologize for making so many edits to the game, but I now realize the best way to go about creating this which will make it fair for everyone. The name of this game is Battle of the Guilds, and as such, the game should be exactly that: a battle between guilds.

 

Please note that from here on out, there is no longer going to be a "team" winner for the BOGs competition. Every match format that I have listed in the matches post is staying the same, however there are no longer losers in the competition. Please read the link one final time to see the changes:

 

https://forums.fuwanovel.net/index.php?/topic/6497-fuwanovels-battle-of-the-guilds/?p=165983

 

To summarize, there will be 3 matches played across the span of the game. 1 match will consist of 2 teams, another match will consist of 3 teams, and the final match will consist of 4 teams. The 3 total scores you earn in your run of the game will be added to your guild's total score at the end of the competition. The guild with the most points wins the Battle of the Guilds. Here are some of the reasons I am changing to this format:

  • Every single match you play counts, where losing only means you will go against less skilled (hypothetically) teams in future matches
  • People will feel a sense of pride knowing that even if they are losing their matches, they are still contributing valuable points toward their guild for the final victory point total
  • This allows me to manipulate each match so that no 2 team's from a specific guild are facing one another in any match

 

Again, I apologize for changing this so often, but this is becoming far more stressful than I intended it to be. This, coupled with the fact I need to create cards, manage streams, and continue working on the visual novel trivia month is becoming a pain. I am doing the best I can, and if I made a mistake in the balance of the game, I apologize. This is easy for someone like myself to handle considering the amount of work I shove on myself, but when problems like this arise it really adds to the stress, and it makes me want to stop doing this.

 

Please note that I am still looking for a volunteer to join madvanced's team. That has not changed.

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