The State of the VN Industry

[solidbatman]

I don't keep as updated with the VN industry as well as I should. I was curious, how well do you think its doing? What could it do better? How are localizations doing, and fan translations. Do you think VNs are becoming more popular in the West?

I look forward to seeing what you guys think.

[sanahtlig]

VNs are becoming increasingly popular in the West. A greater variety of high profile titles are being licensed. The fan translation scene continues to pick up steam. Nonetheless, the paying fanbase remains limited save for a select few titles published by established brands (e.g., the odd handheld title). Despite the growing popularity of VNs in the West, the sustainability of the English market remains in question, and it's doubtful VNs will become anything more than obscure otaku specialty items in the forseeable future (next 10 years). Quite a lot is riding on whether Mangagamer can manage to remain profitable without becoming a nukige clearinghouse. If Mangagamer goes under, and JAST once more becomes the sole purveyor of localized eroge, then we're going to return to the Dark Ages of 2-3 official releases a year. MoeNovel remains a wild card, and it's unclear whether they'll ever release non-Pulltop titles, or whether their business model (of selling censored eroge) is sustainable.

In terms of larger trends in commercial titles, we may actually see the most growth in OELVNs in the coming years, as Western VN fans deconstruct the genre and reimagine it for Western audiences sans the porn and with added gameplay elements. We may also see a polarization of the genre along pornographic lines, with localized story eroge releases gradually declining and being replaced by nukige and all-ages titles, mirroring the current divide of entertainment in the West (all pornography or no pornography at all).

[Eurobeatz]

I'm interested in how the VN industry is doing in Japan. Are VNs gaining popularity or loosing it?

Also, I've noticed a lot of new members on this forum saying that Fuwanovel inspired them to start playing VNs, which makes me happy.

[Wahfuu]

The interest of VN's moves at a glacially slow pace and the english market is pretty piss.

[Fox_DL]

We'll just have to keep doing this until a Hollywood producer green lights a movie based on a VN..

*Begins to write rage review in advance..

[Eurobeatz]

We'll just have to keep doing this until a Hollywood producer green lights a movie based on a VN..

*Begins to write rage review in advance..

Or make a movie blatantly ripping off a VN, like The Lion King did with Kimba the White Lion or The Hunger Games with Battle Royale.

[sanahtlig]

I'm interested in how the VN industry is doing in Japan. Are VNs gaining popularity or loosing it?

Sales of individual Japanese titles are generally decreasing, probably due to competition from other forms of media and the sheer number of titles being produced. At the same time, production costs are increasing in response to demand for ever higher resolutions and production values. Based on what I've heard, the general feeling is that it's becoming increasingly hard to remain profitable. There's an interview with minori's producer on the subject posted on Visual Novel Aer: http://visualnovelaer.fuwanovel.net/2013/02/the-unstoppable-downfall-of-the-bishoujo-ge-industry-interview-with-nbkz-producer-at-minori/

[Guest]

i know that the eroge industry is shrinking in japan

but it matches the general shape of the shrinking of the entire economy (especially the younger generation who are very poor now),

so not really much change in the grand scheme of things

[Yukiru]

videogames with no actual gameplay would normally fail in a continent where the games are usually made in order to have a creative gameplay, and besides that, i don't believe others continents at (least america) are ready for a romantic game and is definitely not ready for an eroge, If My Heart Had Wings is a proof of what i'm talking about.

But i actually think it has future, Steins;Gate is licensed, and hopefully a lot more will be licensed and will not have the problem If My Heart Had Wings had.

Besides that, i think the market will eventually start making more Visualnovel-like games (with that i mean games where your choices change the story)

[solidbatman]

i know that the eroge industry is shrinking in japan

but it matches the general shape of the shrinking of the entire economy (especially the younger generation who are very poor now),

so not really much change in the grand scheme of things :o/>

Do you think we will see the VN industry change and adapt to the new economy? Fewer risks I suppose?

[sanahtlig]

Trouble in Japan spells opportunity for the English market. Recent financial forecasts predict that the US economy will continue to grow in the short-term in the midst of an overall sluggish world economy. This increases the chances that VN developers will seek to expand overseas to remain profitable. If the Japanese market were healthy, there'd be little reason to look at overseas markets which have proven very difficult to capitalize. This increases opportunities for licenses. Note the surge in licenses from new developers since 2008; at one point the only companies localizing their games were Will and Crowd. Only time will tell if such licenses turn enough profit to sustain developer interest and maintain the pace of localization.

[shcboomer]

Do you think we will see the VN industry change and adapt to the new economy? Fewer risks I suppose?

I think it depends how you look at it, economically, they will have to change and adapt. How that will look is hard to say though. Not sure about fewer risks, but probably, again depends on how you would define it.

[Yeah Way]

I think one problem with localising VN's in the west is the "Video Game" label that even people here give it. For newcomers, I think it should be marketed as an "Interactive Manga" or something like that.

[Yeah Way]

Also, we can clearly see that big titles in Japan are still treated as such: "On the day of its release, two video game retailers in Akihabara opened two hours early for advance sales of Rewrite. The main Gamers store opened at 7 a.m. to a line of about 200 people. The Sofmap Amusement store opened at 9 a.m. and used two floors in the eight-story building for sales of Rewrite: the fifth floor was used for general sale and advance orders of the game, while the eighth floor was used solely for those who had reserved their copy." -Wikipedia

[Fox_DL]

I like the pitch about VNs being an "Interactive Manga" +1

[Guest]

Do you think we will see the VN industry change and adapt to the new economy? Fewer risks I suppose?

the culture is too risk adverse and low innovation. the japanese would do anything to not upset the status quo, or their superiors or cause meiwaku for their business partners. that's why I'm not optimistic.

not sure how well the mobile platforms have been performing

there's tons of news on these much smaller VN-style apps that might be doing quite well

like girlfriend http://app.famitsu.com/20130807_205182/

[Veshurik]

Hah, something changed after 4 years? Maybe, no? Still lack...