Climate change, global warming discussion

[sanahtlig]

I found a snippet from the report that discusses an issue I've talked about before:

 

The observed drastic reduction in sea ice can also lead to a “tipping point” – a point beyond which an abrupt or irreversible transition to a different climatic state occurs.

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/future-climate-change

 

 

T. Are there tipping points in the climate system?

Most climate studies have considered only relatively gradual, continuous changes in the Earth’s climate system. However, there are a number of potential “tipping points” in the climate system – points where a threshold is crossed, resulting in a substantial change in the future state of the climate system, regionally and/or globally.

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/faqs, T. Are there tipping points in the climate system?

 

 

 

Climate scientists cannot predict when tipping points will be crossed because of uncertainties in the climate system and because we do not know what pathway future emissions will take. But an absence of

certainty does not indicate an absence of risk.

 

To reiterate what I've said before, we're on a dangerous course we're only beginning to understand--and it's quite possible that by the time we see the most alarming changes playing out, it'll already be too late.

[arakura]

I took a Biogeography class this spring and one of the topics we talked a lot about was Climate Change. From what I've seen and read (including government and non-governmental bodies of scientists who review the heaps of data we've collected) I have no issue saying that the Earth is warming at an increased rate, that there is an anomolously high number of greenouhous gasses in the air (they tested old air samples using air bubbles trapped in ice), and that there are more traumatic consequences than "people are scared by change".

 

http://www.npr.org/2013/11/05/241607259/thanks-to-parasites-moose-are-looking-more-like-ghosts

 

We can expect significant and damaging loss of life(both human and otherwise--poor polar bears need so much land in order to survive). Bugs that are normally kept at bay by cold winters and the like are becoming more prevalent will spread out further and further, and our access to natural resources will be diminished (most medicines have natural components for example, and some are very rare--look up the Pacific Yew). Ice will melt, the dry places will get drier, wet places wetter, and biodiversity is not something we can recreate.

 

I'll be honest that most of what I'm saying is taken from articles that I've read and that I havent actually done any work with the data, but I've put in a good bit of time reading about it. While water vapor is the most prevalent source of the greenhouse effect, and is completely natural, it is also true that CO2 and Methane, in addition to CFCs and the like are gathering in the atmosphere at unparalleled levels and rates of increase. And they show no sign of stopping. The oceans, which absorb most of the CO2 in the atmosphere, are not keeping up with the cycle as they have in the past, and particles are staying in the atmosphere for longer than before, which contributes to trapping outgoing solar radiation. And there are negative radiative forcings that help cool us down, like aerosols (http://instructional1.calstatela.edu/tsalmas/Biol%20420/Readings/Sci%20Amer%20IPCC.pdf - page 4 has the chart that I'm taking this from), but ultimately, even considering error, the heating trend exists and the rate of heating is increasing and that humans are the source. This is what most researchers in the subject will tell you, and what their data suggests.

 

Sorry for the lack of dozens of links, a lot of the stuff that would be cool to post was linked under our school website (which you'd need a password to access) and I couldnt find links to some of it. Either way, I dont mean to be brutally absolute, but I do believe everything I said, so it'd be interesting to hear someone with other beliefs and a reason for them. I think a lot needs to change, and I think that it's up to politics to fix it at this point in the game.

 

Somewhat related, but also brutally significant: http://puu.sh/8FpWa.jpg