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How do you think will be the future VNs?


Soul Hunter
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Guess I will also try some crystal balling... ^_^

Overall, I expect Japan to stay the dominant force for visual novels with 2D art, while I expect the west to take the lead for visual novels with 3D render art. I think the latter is already the case with DrPinkCake (Being a DIK, Acting Lessons) and PhylliGames (Depraved Awakening, upcoming City of Broken Dreamers) probably being the most successful 3D VN producers on Steam. I don't really count Japanese Illusion in that category, since they use real time 3D engines and their titles barely qualify as VN.

Anyway, I think visual novels will stay a niche, but a stable one with several established producers and a sleeper hit from a no-name studio from time to time. The most successful company's will be the ones that manage to establish a solid fan base around their franchises, extending the pure VN sales to merchandising articles, animes and mobile & game spin-offs. The most successful titles will also not be pure VN's, but JRPG and gacha game hybrids. Bigger companies with several franchises and sub-studios that can afford a few failures are obviously favored.

Personal prediction of which companies will stand out here the most:

Moege:
Visual Arts: With studios like Key, Saga Planets and tone work's under their belt, they certainly won't go down easily.
Nexton: They have two successful franchises with BaseSon's Koihime series & Azarashi Soft's Amakano series, and they also have a reasonable successful nukige studio with Liquid.
Yuzusoft: Although they are still an independent studio, they seem to do a lot of things right for quite some time now. They are highly popular in Japan and on the best way to get a similar status in the west. If they continue like that, I expect them to grow and take over other studios sooner or later.

Nukige:
Lilith: They are pretty good at milking the Taimanin cow with their Battle Arena game (no idea how they got that on Steam), tons of merchandising articles and H-animes. And their unique Kagami style adult art is more or less out of competition.
Atelier Kaguya: They have two of the most popular nukige studios with Bare & Bunny & HonkeyTonk Pumpkin. One excels in static art and the other in animation. And the third studio CheshireCat is also slowly getting more popular. Although they aren't big in merchandising yet, I see them at a strong technological advantage with top artists in static and animated art. (Choco Chip & Yoppy)

Gameplay:
Alice-Soft: They have a strong foothold both in Japan and the west with their gameplay titles, and an iconic franchise with Rance. They also produce some rather high quality milf nukiges from time to time, so they aren't just a one-trick pony.
Eushully: Although the ratings of their games seem to have declined in recent years, I still see them in a stable position. Maybe because they still don't give the slightest fuck about the west. Apparently they can afford it - their titles are still top sellers in Japan. Besides full JRPG's their only serious contender seems to be AliceSoft anyway. 

Story:
Type-Moon: Ha ha, I know... wouldn't it be nice if the studio that probably has more money than the rest of the bunch together, would actually create a new VN again? :amane:
Innocent Grey: Would I like to write... but unfortunately, I just can't see them as a save and future proof studio. :kosame:

But seriously, after Light went down (or not?!), I don't even consider Nitroplus a save contender anymore. Pure story VN's are far too hit & miss to be a save investment. Hybrids are the way to go now and probably also in the future. Moege/Nukige/Gameplay with 'some' story is way safer.

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I don't know what the future holds for VNs, but I would like to see more emphasis on visual storytelling, because I see a lot of potential in that area. Muv-Luv Alternative and Mahoutsukai no Yoru comes to my mind, where they used lots of CGs and effects to add more immersion to the scenes. Most VNs just use static character sprites and then CGs in key moments (and ero scenes). 

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6 hours ago, ChaosRaven said:

Guess I will also try some crystal balling... ^_^

Overall, I expect Japan to stay the dominant force for visual novels with 2D art, while I expect the west to take the lead for visual novels with 3D render art. I think the latter is already the case with DrPinkCake (Being a DIK, Acting Lessons) and PhylliGames (Depraved Awakening, upcoming City of Broken Dreamers) probably being the most successful 3D VN producers on Steam. I don't really count Japanese Illusion in that category, since they use real time 3D engines and their titles barely qualify as VN.

Anyway, I think visual novels will stay a niche, but a stable one with several established producers and a sleeper hit from a no-name studio from time to time. The most successful company's will be the ones that manage to establish a solid fan base around their franchises, extending the pure VN sales to merchandising articles, animes and mobile & game spin-offs. The most successful titles will also not be pure VN's, but JRPG and gacha game hybrids. Bigger companies with several franchises and sub-studios that can afford a few failures are obviously favored.

Personal prediction of which companies will stand out here the most:

Moege:
Visual Arts: With studios like Key, Saga Planets and tone work's under their belt, they certainly won't go down easily.
Nexton: They have two successful franchises with BaseSon's Koihime series & Azarashi Soft's Amakano series, and they also have a reasonable successful nukige studio with Liquid.
Yuzusoft: Although they are still an independent studio, they seem to do a lot of things right for quite some time now. They are highly popular in Japan and on the best way to get a similar status in the west. If they continue like that, I expect them to grow and take over other studios sooner or later.

Nukige:
Lilith: They are pretty good at milking the Taimanin cow with their Battle Arena game (no idea how they got that on Steam), tons of merchandising articles and H-animes. And their unique Kagami style adult art is more or less out of competition.
Atelier Kaguya: They have two of the most popular nukige studios with Bare & Bunny & HonkeyTonk Pumpkin. One excels in static art and the other in animation. And the third studio CheshireCat is also slowly getting more popular. Although they aren't big in merchandising yet, I see them at a strong technological advantage with top artists in static and animated art. (Choco Chip & Yoppy)

Gameplay:
Alice-Soft: They have a strong foothold both in Japan and the west with their gameplay titles, and an iconic franchise with Rance. They also produce some rather high quality milf nukiges from time to time, so they aren't just a one-trick pony.
Eushully: Although the ratings of their games seem to have declined in recent years, I still see them in a stable position. Maybe because they still don't give the slightest fuck about the west. Apparently they can afford it - their titles are still top sellers in Japan. Besides full JRPG's their only serious contender seems to be AliceSoft anyway. 

Story:
Type-Moon: Ha ha, I know... wouldn't it be nice if the studio that probably has more money than the rest of the bunch together, would actually create a new VN again? :amane:
Innocent Grey: Would I like to write... but unfortunately, I just can't see them as a save and future proof studio. :kosame:

But seriously, after Light went down (or not?!), I don't even consider Nitroplus a save contender anymore. Pure story VN's are far too hit & miss to be a save investment. Hybrids are the way to go now and probably also in the future. Moege/Nukige/Gameplay with 'some' story is way safer.

what makes you label KEY as "moege" and not Story?

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14 hours ago, ChaosRaven said:

Type-Moon: Ha ha, I know... wouldn't it be nice if the studio that probably has more money than the rest of the bunch together, would actually create a new VN again?

Probably not, but I think they are still working on that massive Tsukihime remake...? And they can put the rest of their library to similar treatment if that project works out. Milk that stuff alongside FGO for the next few decades. :3

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14 hours ago, Silvz said:

what makes you label KEY as "moege" and not Story?

I didn't want to deal with too many categories, so I've put nakige under the moege umbrella as the more drama-heavy branch of it. And since the major sub-studios of Visual Arts are either moege or nakige, it was the most fitting place for it. Key is admittedly a bit of an edge case, because I'd consider at least Rewrite and Angel Beats as story VN's. But the majority of their titles are still what they are famous for: Nakiges. So even if Key would be separate form Visual Arts, I'd have probably included them in the moege section as well.

BTW, it wouldn't have been necessary to quote the whole text wall again. Just the relevant part, like Plk_Lesiak did, would have been enough. ;)

6 hours ago, Plk_Lesiak said:

Probably not, but I think they are still working on that massive Tsukihime remake...? And they can put the rest of their library to similar treatment if that project works out. Milk that stuff alongside FGO for the next few decades. :3

Oh, the never ending story about the mysterious Tsukihime remake, they apparently want to release some day in the far future. Well, I believe it if I see it. :blink:

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