MaggieROBOT

from a writing standpoint
about vanilla eroge: it's gonna depend on how many people get inspired by Rance 10 and Musicus, if nothing happens and writers keep flocking to moege then it's best to lose all hope.
about console-only: probably the same as last decade, meaning pretty good but won't set the world on fire.
about otome,bl and yuri: with how much the writing on them improved in the last decade, will probably be the best alternative that we can get.
about OELVNs: hopefully keep getting more ambitious to the point of reaching their prime in the next 10 years.

gacha
...oh wait, that's the present
 
more gacha

I think there's a catch when it goes to expecting VNs to progress on a technical level... 2D art does not scale to technological capabilities the same way 3d graphics do, and VNs are way past the era of technical limitations of computers/consoles being the thing keeping them down in any way (unlike visual media that struggled with those for many decades). You say better sprites... But what can you do to make them better outside of working your artists to the ground? More animation? Upscaling by neural networks? These will always be controversial, to say the least. Better engines, but how much can you really streamline stuff with meaningful gains when 2D art and text are still two core elements of the experience? As long as VNs are the medium they are, there are pretty hard limits to how they can evolve when it goes to form. I mean, remember that VR JVN Sekai Project helped to crowdfund and localize? It was different... But kind of pointless, because VN formula at its core has little use for such gimmicks.
When it goes to tropes, story quality and generally getting closer to their full potential... Hard to say. Eroge scene is extremely stale right now. EVNs are in a particularly non-lucrative corner of the already-struggling indie market and are growing rather slowly. I'll have to see real change before I believe in it... But also, my near-infinite backlog and similarily gargantuan Steam wishlist suggest that we're getting enough cool things to read even as it is.

Dual Chinese Japanese multi-releases and microtransactions. 

はいはい to add credibility to this essay, let me, a very loud specimen (gender neutral) of the often neglected otomefolk tribe, affirm this definition is quite accurate. We're just romancedudes  (gender neutral) that plays under slight different set of rules, but the pursuit of a moenirvana is all the same.

はいはい to add credibility to this essay, let me, a very loud specimen (gender neutral) of the often neglected otomefolk tribe, affirm this definition is quite accurate. We're just romancedudes  (gender neutral) that plays under slight different set of rules, but the pursuit of a moenirvana is all the same.

はいはい to add credibility to this essay, let me, a very loud specimen (gender neutral) of the often neglected otomefolk tribe, affirm this definition is quite accurate. We're just romancedudes  (gender neutral) that plays under slight different set of rules, but the pursuit of a moenirvana is all the same.

はいはい to add credibility to this essay, let me, a very loud specimen (gender neutral) of the often neglected otomefolk tribe, affirm this definition is quite accurate. We're just romancedudes  (gender neutral) that plays under slight different set of rules, but the pursuit of a moenirvana is all the same.

I've always considered the Romancedude a subtype of the Moefuck that specifically wants the romance content in VNs. Part of the appeal for (western) men here is that the romance genre is generally either gender-neutral or female-centered, especially in erotica (or at least that is my perception - and that counts!). A lot of arrow gay are very explicitly male-oriented, which can be hard to get anywhere else. But it's not like otome/bl isn't a thing too — however the Otome/bl/yuri fan is Actually just a subtype of Romancedude (gender neutral dude, remember).
That said, while there is so much overlap b/w Moefuck and Romancedude that I'm conglomerating them, we can see examples of the pure Romancedude that doesn't really care for moe that much. Possibly the preponderance of the Romancedude-Moefuck combination is due to the medium primarily offering just that!
Yeah, but imagine how bad it could be if we didn't push back?????????
Anyway, autism is actually pretty high on VNDB, which has pseudo-authority status, so I'm still hoping for AA to get taken off sometime. Any year now!!!
The real solution, of course, is to just not be as engaged in a community of such plebs as would call AA VN to begin with. Considering that such a community will likely also be newbie-friendly and thus filled with such cringe as one so denoted brings, this is a natural motion as one gains experience anyway. It can even be fun to rally around how cringe all the dumb mainstream articles are.

I first started writing this in like 2018 and I finished half of it now but I didn't do it the way I was planning back then and it's a bit of a disjointed mess. I hope it's good enough anyway.

-
There have been some arguments as to what the definition of a visual novel should be, and that's well and good. But let's look at it from the other direction: what works should our definition of visual novels include?
Let us begin our journey with a silly, myopic statement I will nevertheless repeat until @Palas finally calls a hit on me: Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney is not a visual novel.
Okay, bullets fired, I feel better already. But why am I trying to define the boundaries of the visual novel category to exclude the pretty good adventure game series Ace Attorney, and what kinds of criteria am I using? Furthermore, why would anyone disagree with me when I am obviously right?
...Okay, let's back up a bit. Why do I care so much about categories at all?
Categories
Categories are useful because they allow us to make predictions about something assigned to that category. In the visual novel community, there are there are several important predictions to make:
1. I am likely to enjoy this work if it executes its aesthetic well
2. I would consider a person who reads/plays/likes this more a part of the community than one that does not
3. I would probably enjoy talking to someone who reads this work {about visual novels}
We can see straight away that different parts of this would be important to different people. If you want to be part of a close-knit community, getting 2 and 3 right matters a lot. If you can find the visual novels you enjoy without community assistance, 1 matters little.
The VN category helps us determine what things are acceptable to discuss, and what things are not our (main) concern. Similarly, the category helps us determine what people will be in our community, and what people will not. It's generally more entertaining to discuss things you care about, and it's better when the people you discuss with are more in tune with you. As such, there are real stakes, and real reasons to want to avoid being maximally inclusive.
But what draws people to VNs, and what does that draw mean for their desired definition of the VN category? Let me attempt a list of categories:
Archetypes of attraction to VNs
Weebs
The Weeb likes some part of Japanese culture. The Weeb is very skeptical and/or dismissive of visual novels not made in Japan, though the Weeb might make an exception for things made in Korea or China (Indonesia is probably too Western, however). If we asked the Weeb, the main problem with the visual novel category right now would be that too many people see fit to include a flood of shitty EVNs. The Weeb might grudgingly accept Katawa Shoujo depending on the Weeb's other preferences.
Moefuck
The Moefuck reads visual novels because they really like cute girls or boys. Often personal aesthetics play a big part here and specific preferences are hard to predict, for example certain Moefucks may reject an entire artist or company due to the artstyle in their works being unacceptable. The Moefuck cluster is often seen as an amorphous, rainbow-vomiting blob ruining visual novels by the more seriously afflicted storycucks, but in truth there is more variation in it than they may expect. Moefucks are not necessarily hostile to works with serious stories, they just prefer those stories to also have cute girls.
Storycucks
The Storycuck wants to experience good stories, and finds VNs to be a source of such stories. In terminal cases, the Storycuck may not be able to deal with the large amount of filler in many visual novels and bounce right out into the community periphery after initially being hooked by some particularly well-paced VN. The perfectly horrible case is the Storycuck that is too distracted to watch shows, unable to get into books due to lack of visual stimulus, yet also unable to deal with SoL content. Is there any being more cursed? Anyway, I digress. The Storycuck doesn't really care that much about medium conventions like moe or superficial presentation style or whatever: they want a compelling narrative. If we ask a Storycuck, one problem with the visual novel category right now is that it doesn't admit other related genres like walking simulators, or things like Actual Sunlight and To The Moon. Their perspective on more extreme extensions like Phoenix Wright or even JRPGs will depend on their evaluation of gameplay.
Degenerate Fappers
These gender-neutral guys just wanna have fun, in a way that generally requires at least one hand to be free for use. You're unlikely to actually see pure Fappers in the community as they don't really have stories to discuss. I'd try the f95zone or whatever if I were looking. In mixes with other types, this manifests as disinterest in anything that does not have porn. In their eyes, if it's got no ero, it has no place calling itself a VN — after all, if it can't be fapped to, there's no point in reading it!
Ero-JRPG fanboys
So now you're thinking to yourself - these guys (still gender-neutral) have got to have a lot of overlap with the Degenerate Fappers. I agree, but I think it's worth separating out the two. The Degenerate Fappers don't really have a need for the visual novel category because of their DF association — they'll be arguing mostly from another type's perspective, with a modifier of Horny — but the Ero-JRPG fanboys have a lot to lose if their objects of passion are cut out of the VN category. Why? Because the wider JRPG community often has a serious intolerance of porn in their games. There _are_ places that specify in just Ero-JRPGs [nekohen], but there aren't that many games in the category, and focus for some may be less on the story contents (often machine translated!) and more on the gameplay (ui only patches!) and porn. This leads to wishing to classify Ero-JRPGs like Toushin Toshi II, Evenicle, etc. as VNs despite them being basically equivalent to your average JRPG if one ignores the sex scenes. The pure Ero-JRPG fanboy doesn't really like to read for long stretches without interaction, and if it could remove something from the definition, it would probably pick first choice-free visual novels, then extensionally VNs with few enough choices to be bothersome.
Autists
The motivation of the Autist when it comes to the visual novel category is that it be clear and defined by a definition that is as Not Bullshit as possible. This is a meta-motivation that may cause people to go against the naive interests of their other types. For example, observe the Storycuck Zaka's high Autism interaction as he proclaims walking simulators should not be considered VNs, despite him having liked Gone Home quite a bit and being interested in more of the genre. The Autist's greatest gripe is when people goddamn try to shove things in the FUCKING category that obviously don't fit PLEASE STOP IT DAMN YOU.
VN Evangelists
The VN Evangelist wants to spread the word of visual novels by any means possible, and is not afraid to butt heads with some stuffy Autist if they have to. They can and will use imprecise language like "it's like playing an anime, man", wide definitions (expect Phoenix Wright to be on their list of 'VNs' to play for beginners), and such villainy to attempt to get more people into visual novels. A community member in favor of more exclusion may cringe at their methods and predict that they will overwhelmingly attract annoying orbitals who will finish DDLC or whatever and then fuck up discussion with their terrible, uninformed opinions. The Evangelist will tell said member to loosen the fuck up and not be so elitist, and who knows maybe DDLC-kun will be a productive member of the community one day NOT THAT THEY AREN'T ALREADY BUT ANYWAY. And so on. The VN Evangelist wishes more things were on vndb in general so it could have more arguments to get people to try other 'VNs' out.
Artistes
The Artiste is probably making a VN. Or two. It's got culture up to here. VNs are a medium, but it's so boring if you just take the conventions for granted, right? They want to break and remake in a Shivan storm of creation, never settling for the mediocrity of the established form. They resent criteria that restrict their medium-busting ambitions, and would like for you to abandon your silly notions of traditional presentation methods. The Artiste wants you to fucking chill out on insisting on any definition, but okay can we have like, The Walking Dead in the category please? (Zaka: No.) Oh and Actual Sunlight should definitely be in the category. (Zaka: Sure)
Incredibly half-arsed conclusion
Speaking as a person who is a Storycuck and Autist, but has low amounts of Weeb, Moefuck, and Horny, I think we should have a somewhat restrictive definition of visual novels, but we should welcome diverse artstyles and embrace EVNs. As I don't value gameplay highly, I consider the _choiceless visual novel_ the best way to ground the category, even though this is arguably ahistorical. Choices are fine, intrusive gameplay only good if it serves the narrative, and things that are OBVIOUSLY JRPGs FOR CHRIST'S SAKE should frankly just be taken out of VNDB right this minute. That said if something is very close to a VN and also story heavy and honestly it kind of reads like a VN? fuck it IS a VN fuck you include Actual Sunlight actually... then uhh yeah... Maybe we can compromise my ideals.
—But your reasons for being into VNs may be very different. And this is why we must fight. I can only hope I will one day prevail, or at least see Actual Sunlight (kino) included on VNDB. Until then, I will attempt to appeal to the Autism in both of us to at least get a sensible — if fragile — boundary established.

Oh wow wasn't expecting DLC for Steam Prison. I'm not particularly interested in a route for this character, but hey bonus content for any VN is an idea that I whole hearted support (And I'll get it anyway for the side stories).
Also we can never have enough liar-soft, their games are great.

Oh wow wasn't expecting DLC for Steam Prison. I'm not particularly interested in a route for this character, but hey bonus content for any VN is an idea that I whole hearted support (And I'll get it anyway for the side stories).
Also we can never have enough liar-soft, their games are great.

Anime Expo is usually the place where a lot of the VN Publishers drop their news, but this year AX is cancelled due to the ongoing pandemic. But that doesn't mean that there are no news to share.
Âge
The first round of news came from Âge the creators of Muv Luv. They had an event live stream on July 1st that you can watch here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIc6XHZiDEY
 
Announcements:
Muv-Luv Photonmelodies♮
Release: Summer 2020
https://twitter.com/muvluvseries/status/1278506748706357248
and
Muv-Luv Unlimited - The Day After
Release: 2020
https://twitter.com/muvluvseries/status/1278510380961034241
I guess that this is Alternative Chronicles Vol.1-4 but I can't quite confirm that since I couldn't catch the live stream. Besides that they also announced the translation of the Muv-Luv Alternative manga.
 
Jast USA
Jast and Ninetail announced a Kickstarter for Venus Blood -Hypno- named VenusBlood HOLLOW for the international release.
The Kickstarter should launch this Autumm.
You can find more information on the official website: http://www.ninetail.tk/tde12/index.html
https://twitter.com/Intl_Ninetail/status/1278741873306157056
 
Mangagamer
Mangagamer announced an expansion for Steam Prison centering around Fin.
 

https://twitter.com/MangaGamer/status/1278903093376270336
and
Jeanne at the Clock Tower ~Jeanne a la tour d’horloge~ from Liar-Soft
https://twitter.com/MangaGamer/status/1278903363569098752
Here is the website for more information: http://mangagamer.org/jeanne/
 
 
Sekai Project
Sekai Project had a panel at the online convention KuroCon on this Twitch channel. (Maybe there will be a VOD later on the channel?)
Here are the news posts on Sekai Projects website: https://sekaiproject.com/blogs/news/kurocon-2020-updates-announcements
And on Denpasoft: https://denpasoft.com/blogs/news/kurocon-2020-updates-announcements
Announcement 1:
9-nine-:Episode 4
https://twitter.com/sekaiproject/status/1279560338522824704
They hope to have Episode 4 quicker than the wait between Ep.2 and Ep.3
 
Announcement 2:
Karakara 3
https://twitter.com/sekaiproject/status/1279560593712672776
 
Announcement 3:
Slobbish Dragon Princess the newest VN by Whirlpool
 
https://twitter.com/sekaiproject/status/1279561225416785921
They are aiming for similar release window as the Japanese release this October.
 
 
Announcement 4:
Please be Happy by Studio Élan 
https://twitter.com/sekaiproject/status/1279559820316565504
Official website: https://vnstudioelan.com/games/please-be-happy/
 
They also showed an free HD Update for Hoshizora no Memoria -Wish upon a Shooting Star- and it's Fandisc Hoshizora no Memoria -Eternal Heart-.
https://twitter.com/sekaiproject/status/1279558951713964032
 
 
 
Since this news round will be a lot less centralized than usual I am certain that I will miss some news, so please post what ever news I miss in this thread!
 
I don't think Nekonyan had planned to attend AX, so I am unsure if there will be any news from them.
 

I'm actually surprised that they announced two things I'm interested in. I haven't bought Steam Prison yet, but I will once the expansion's out. Also, liar-soft titles are probably the plot-heavy VNs I'm interested in the most so I'm definitely getting Jeanne at the Clock Tower once it releases.

Mangagamer announcements:
 

Childhood marriage promise. Imagine not only remembering but also taking seriously some dumb shit you said at an age where you were still eating sand off the playground.

Childhood marriage promise. Imagine not only remembering but also taking seriously some dumb shit you said at an age where you were still eating sand off the playground.

It's still May where I am so a happy birthday to our EVN defensor extraordinaire @Plk_Lesiak

It's still May where I am so a happy birthday to our EVN defensor extraordinaire @Plk_Lesiak

I have some news for you, man...

sure thing buddy sure thing 
 
1. AMASSING CAPITAL - As with the vast majority of businesses, you're going to need some startup capital. Because the general profitability of English language visual novel translations is approximately 0, you will likely have a difficult time finding investors unless they have two or more health conditions that inhibit their brain function. You will most likely have to self-fund. Flip those cushions, ransack your old man's attic for some forgotten stock certificates, you know the deal. The bare minimum, I'd say, is somewhere around $50,000. NOTE that you can increase your (probably non-existent because VN) profit margins by performing a work role in the company, translating, editing, etc; instead of just being the translation sweatshop overseer.
OK and PLEASE don't go into debt over such a pants-on-head business idea. Please don't. 
2. ESTABLISH THE COMPANY - Search for how to establish a company in your jurisdiction, it should be the same for a localization business as most other businesses. Come up with some sick name and branding, get a fancy graphic artist to do some of it, maybe get an anime girl mascot since zoomers seem to love that shit these days.
OK you have money to burn and company branding that hopefully doesn't look like a kindergarten art project, not bad let's get started down that slope that ends in 'we are, regrettably, going to be phasing out of visual novel publishing'.
3. ACQUIRE LICENSES - This is where my man Kokoro, my 4th favourite person on Fuwanovel, 's advice comes in. Haul ass over to Japan — you DO speak Japanese, right? Perhaps consider enlisting the services of a business consultant with experience in Japan so as to not make a fool of yourself and make use of their connections so you are not cold calling. Otherwise, cold call, flash your sick branding, and attempt to get a meeting with a representative one of the last vestiges of a dying industry. In a pinch, you could try virtual meetings, but in general it is better to have boots on the ground when performing international business. 
BONUS STEP - Wait for COVID-19 to settle down.
BONUS BONUS STEP - Consider working with Chinese companies as well so you perhaps stand a chance at financial success. Practise drinking baijiu and sake before you leave in order to sharpen your abilities in shitfaced negotiation.
4. ACQUIRE STAFF - Assuming you made it this far by the grace of God, you will need staff members to work on the license you have acquired. A translator, an editor, and a QA (preferably a GOOD one they're important) is probably the bare minimum, along with the unfortunate bastard that will have to handle the technical side of things with the engine. Probably attempt to pay them around the sweet spot between 'this would be a decent wage in 1820' and 'this would be a decent wage in 2020'. You have to keep those expenses down but if the sweatshop workers take up arms then the game is all over, commissar.
5. WORK ON THE THING - Do the translating and the editing and the QA-ing. Try to stick to the deadlines you impose and share, that alone would probably set you apart.
6. ADVERTISE THE THING AND DO SOCIAL MEDIA THINGS - Again use that sick branding to form an online presence. Do it yourself if you are personable and responsible, otherwise find somebody else to do it. 
7. SELL THE THING - Contact storefronts, the classics, Steam, JAST USA, all that great stuff we know and love, get it listed places where people can buy it, maybe start your own web store if your web design person lives in an economically depressed region. 
8. GO BANKRUPT - Ok nah just kidding but probably.
 
Then you just repeat from 3, possibly skipping 4 if you are a benevolent overlord. Best of luck to you!

Aaah that's a classic one. You didn't mention what walkthrough you're using to get the "right choices" but I'm assuming it's either a) Fuwa's one, that doesn't specify what "yes" you should pick (and it does matter), or b) chem is amani's one that according to some friends of mine doesn't work with everyone.
I was sent these sequences long ago by a friend that suffered in trial and error in this part and it worked for both her and me. See if it works for you too. It uses up and down instead of the choices themselves to be less spoilerish and because some choices are "the same". The sequence starts with the answer to the "Do you want to feel even better?" choice:
Down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, up, up, up, up, up, up  --> Good Ending
Down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, up, up, down, up, up --> Bad Ending

Shining Song Starnova, I guess. 
Mariya starts the game as a alcoholic, Julie asks the MC out for drinks in 2 different occasions and all 7 girls go out to a bar with the MC to celebrate something at least once iirc 

Shining Song Starnova, I guess. 
Mariya starts the game as a alcoholic, Julie asks the MC out for drinks in 2 different occasions and all 7 girls go out to a bar with the MC to celebrate something at least once iirc 

Can't believe google lied to me